Sunday, January 30, 2011

"DIGITAL REVOLUTION TURNS INTO A POLITICAL REVOLUTION IN THE ARAB WORLD"

The establishment of the Al-Jazeera satellite television station about 15 years ago and its uncensored coverage of the major and daily political, economic and social developments in the Middle East in particular and the rest of the world in general has continued to educate and empower tens of millions of the ordinary Arabs with the political education and global exposure that they lacked for decade. This new political education gave birth to the successful people-led revolution in Tunisia and the revolts in Algeria, Yemen and now in Egypt for the last five days.

The Internet and the social media such as the Facebook, Twitter, blogs and the online journalism also contributed to the current revolts that are going on in many of the Arab nations, particularly in Egypt. The technologies have continue to serve as the medium of interaction all over the Arab World where burning political, economic, social and religions issues are debated, analyzed and discussed daily amongst the millions of ordinary Arabs.

The Telecommunication and Information Technologies of the cellphones, smartphones and ipads are now the powerful tools of political and social mobilization in the hands of the masses of the people of the Arab nations against their sit-tight, corrupt, repressive, dictatorial and oppressive leaders and their governments.

If these protests in Egypt succeeded and resulted in the removal of the President Hosni Mubarak from power, then the aftermath consequences will reverberate so much in the corridors of power of the entire Arab World and the Middle East in particular and the world in general. The outcome could be very grave in its implications for the following reasons:

(i) The Muslim Brotherhood which is the largest Islamic opposition party in Egypt today and a major force behind these protests could end up in power in Egypt. This development may result in the establishment of the largest Islamic government in the Middle East.
(ii) If these protests resulted in a power change in Egypt. The new government may break the peace treaty that Egypt signed with Isreal in the 1970s. This could set the entire Middle East into the biggest crisis in this 21st century.
(iii) Egypt is the America's biggest ally in the Arab World for the last few decades and the second biggest recipient of the United States foreign aid of about $1.5 billion yearly in military assistance. This development could damage the American-Egyptian diplomatic relationship that is a key to the peace in the Middle East for decades now.
(iv) The Suez Canal in Egypt is strategic to the world oil supply. About 2.5 million barrels of oil flow daily through those pipelines under the canal to the international oil market. This could be affected if there is a change of power in Egypt via these ongoing political revolts. This could result in international oil embargo, oil glut and blockage to free movements of the oil tankers in the region.
(iv) These political protests if they ended up in a change of power in Egypt, this could encourage similar uprisings and protests by ordinary people in the entire Arab World against their sit-tight rulers, dictators and monarchies. This may also be the biggest game changer of the 21st century in the Arab World that could changed the entire political landscape of the whole Middle East for many decades to come.

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