Friday, February 11, 2011

"THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION AND THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST"

Now that the Egyptian revolution has resulted in the removal of  President Hosni Mubarak from power. The biggest questions left unanswered are: What is left now for the Egyptians to make or mar? What are the present and the future consequences of the Egyptian revolution in Arab World and Middle East in particular, and the whole world in general? Below are the possible aftermath effects of what just happened in Egypt today.

(i) The Muslim Brotherhood which is the largest Islamic opposition party in Egypt today and a major force behind the Egyptian revolution could end up in power in Egypt. This development may result in the establishment of the largest Islamic government in the Middle East.

(ii) The new government that will emerge in Egypt at the end of this political transition that started today may break the peace treaty that Egypt signed with Isreal in the 1970s. This singular development could set the entire Middle East region of the world into the biggest crisis in this 21st century.

(iii) Egypt is the America's biggest ally in the Arab World for the last few decades and the second biggest recipient of the United States foreign aid of about $1.5 billion yearly in military assistance. The emerging government in Egypt may not respect this age long American-Egyptian diplomatic relationship that is the key to the peace in the Middle East for many decades now.

(iv) The Suez Canal in Egypt is strategic to the world oil supply. About 2.5 million barrels of oil flow daily through those pipelines under the canal to the international oil market. Any government that emerges in Egypt must respect and support the free movement of oil tankers in the Suez Canal. If there are any disruptions, this could shoot up the prices of oil in the  international markets.

(iv) Today's revolution in Egypt that forced Hosni Mubarak to step down from power could encourage similar uprisings and protests by ordinary people in the entire Arab World against their sit-tight rulers, dictators and monarchies. This may also be the biggest game changer of the 21st century in the Arab World that could change the entire political landscape of the whole Middle East for many decades to come.

No comments:

Post a Comment