If that election holds and it is all-inclusive (voting takes place in the North-East with about 10 million voters or 16% of the presidential voters of 2015 at stake), and the election is also a free, fair, transparent and credible one. If General Muhammadu Buhari does not win in the first round of that election, then there will be a run-off. General Buhari by working alone with his political organ, the CPC that he formed and registered about 4 months before that election in 2011 got almost 57% of President Jonathan Goodluck's total votes and 25% of the votes in 16 states of the federation despite President Jonathan Goodluck's lack of any political baggages (security and economy) at that time, power of incumbency, one politically intact PDP without any breakaway faction, unlimited access to financial resources from the Nigeria's treasury and from his wealthy donors as well as the full support of the federal might (INEC and security forces) behind him. General Buhari has many political advantages in 2015 against President Jonathan Goodluck.
Firstly, the biggest opposition parties with 14 state governors, thousands of members of the national and state assemblies plus a national spread will challenge President Jonathan Goodluck in 2015 unlike in 2011. Secondly, President Jonathan Goodluck is running with a smaller and a weaker PDP that is not the same as the PDP of 2011 in all reality. Thirdly, the failures of President Jonathan Goodluck on corruption, economy, national security (Boko Haram insurgency) and youth unemployment are the main issues in this election. General Buhari is campaigning on security, economy and corruption. Fourthly, religion, ethnicity and politics of geopolitical zones will play the biggest roles in this election. The bulk of the votes are in the North-West (18 million voters), South-West (14 million voters) and North East (10 million voters). These 3 regions are the strong political base for the APC and they jointly account for about 63% of the presidential voters in 2015.
Finally, Northern Muslims will vote massively for General Buhari, South-West Christians and Muslims will vote heavily for Prof. Osibanjo (Buhari's running mate). The South-East and South-South with a total of about 18 million votes will vote for President Jonathan Goodluck. The votes in the North-Central of Nigeria which is about 9 million will be divided between General Buhari and President Jonathan Goodluck because this region of Nigeria is many up of the many ethnic groups of the Northern Nigeria, This region is also divided almost evenly between Christians and Muslims. Finally, politics in Nigeria is driven by personality, religion, ethnicity, geopolitical zone and never by ideologies. Every politics boils down to the local issues and it is also a game of numbers that determines the winner at the end of the day. #RevealerRevealsNigerian2015PresidentialElection - Sunday Iwalaiye.
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