The opposition party in Nigeria, the APC should learn a quick lesson from the way presidential campaigns and elections are run in America by the two main political parties, the Democrat and the Republican. America's electorates from the 50 states of the union are divided into 3 voting blocs, blue, red and swing states. The blues states are traditionally for Democrats and the red states are solidly for Republicans. The candidates of both parties always campaign to win votes in those swing states that can go either side and will always decide the winner of the White House.
As it is in Nigeria today, the North-East is for APC, the North-West is for APC, the North-Central is a battleground between the PDP and the APC, the South-South is for PDP and the South-East is for PDP. The swing region in this 2015 presidential election that will determine the next occupant of the Aso Rock is the South-West. Bola Tinubu and his APC governors from the most important region of Nigeria in the 2015 presidential election are the principal deciders of the future of the APC in 2015, either in the Aso Rock villa or not. The largest votes are in the North-West, North-East and South-West of Nigeria.
General Buhari needs two things to win that election. General Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 8 or 9 more states, mainly from Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Buhari will also need to win the highest votes in that election which is practically possible from the votes from the South-West, North-East and North-West going for him. Buhari got his 12 million votes in the 2011 presidential election mainly from the North-West, North-East and North-Central and had 25% of the votes mainly from the 16 Northern states of Nigeria.
If Bola Tinubu will not sell out this time around like he did in 2011 and will put the structure of APC in place in the South-West. Buhari and APC will make history from two fronts in 2015, firstly, as the first opposition party to win the presidential election in Nigeria and secondly, as the only Nigerian that contested four consecutive times before winning the presidency of Nigeria. I hope APC will learn one or two simple lessons from this simple political analysis. Time will surely tell. #ThePoliticalLessonForAPCIn2015
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